Author Topic: The Great British Weather Debate  (Read 68673 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

squigglev2

  • Member
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #420 on: October 21, 2017, 04:48:54 PM »
Question Ian.

Weather reporting in my area on BBC seems to get worse. Some things I’ve read in the portion of the thread I’ve read make sense, eg, I could not use a Norwich forcecast for where I am on the North coast. I don’t understand the technical reasons but, yes, as with a say Llandudo/Llanwrst example, I could experience quite different conditions to the city, not really that far away.

I believe our centre is Weybourne.  I’ve long dismissed long range forecasts but the short term ones strike me as worse.  I can maybe understand  that maybe better systems and modelling (not that I’d have a clue on that) might lead to more changes (which happen – tomorrow might change from “generally suuny” to “heavy rain”) in a short time on the BBC report or their Android app but even the day itself can be out.  Or I think so, or maybe with things like panning a gardening task, I’m just taking more notice?

Ian

  • Administrator
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #421 on: October 21, 2017, 07:00:19 PM »
Perhaps. You have to remember that all forecasting is probability-based, so there's a margin of error - I think it's around +/-5% at best - and it's often worse. But if you're spending a lot of time planning outside activities, then you will become more aware of forecasting inaccuracies.  My wife's the gardener, and she's always moaning about the weather behaviour.

There's also the local topography, which can affect things quite a bit.  Thus, Llandudno has an average annual rainfall of around 11", Llanrwst around 40" and Betws 60", so a pretty wide variation within just a few miles.

Another nuisance is the jet stream, which has been behaving oddly over the past couple of years. That has the power to produce very cold or very warm weather, often with little warning.

But there's no doubt that the planet's climate is changing, becoming warmer, and that will lead to increased rainfall over the Northern hemisphere and more extreme weather events. All this makes accurate forecasting more difficult.
“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

snowcap

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #422 on: October 21, 2017, 10:13:19 PM »
it was quite a stormy day when we left Llandudno at 3pm this afternoon and the trip home was far from pleasant but at least the trip across the new bridge was quite a relief after being held up for 20 min,s or more in the past, 3-4 mins at the most, well worth the £1-80 toll (robbing sods)

squigglev2

  • Member
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #423 on: October 21, 2017, 11:00:01 PM »
Glad you ad a good day.  A long wile since I got to Llandudno. Last time to N Wales for me and mum was a few years back for an Irish session in Bangor and while we toyed with heading back that way we opted or the A5, taking in close to my mother's birth place and mine (I think we both feel more affinity to the corner of N Wales this forum is about but I am Shrewsbury born, leaving young and mum had a very rural borders childhood before meeting dad (from Norwich) when se was training in Brum...) so it evoked other memories.

Trying to get back to stormy weather and the right area, Skerryvore (Pydew) seemed quite a place for winds! It had great views but it was a bit exposed....

Ian

  • Administrator
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #424 on: October 22, 2017, 08:44:03 AM »
Pydew - faces South / South West.  Couldn't be more vulnerable if it tried.
“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Hugo

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #425 on: December 11, 2017, 01:56:53 PM »
The snow is starting to thaw on Colwyn Heights although the temperature is 0 C  but the extreme weather has meant that the visibility from here is excellent today.     From my window I can see the snow covered hills of the Cumbrian Hills,  but the Isle of Man and Northern Island are crystal clear but I can't make out any snow on them even when I've used binoculars.

Tonight they have forecast even colder temperatures so it's just as well that I've got a lot of grit for the drive

Ian

  • Administrator
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #426 on: January 01, 2018, 02:00:28 PM »
Between 00:05 Wed 3rd and 22:00 Wed 3rd

Strong and at times gusty winds are expected through much of Wednesday. Combined with a period of high tides, it's likely that some coastal communities and routes will be affected by spray and large waves, whilst there is a small chance that injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown on to sea fronts, roads and coastal properties, along western and southern coasts. There is a small chance of injuries and danger to life, as well as minor property damage, from flying debris. There is a small chance of transport delays, route and bridge closures, and cancellations to public transport. As well as this, there is a small chance of disruption to power and other services.

Welcome to 2018...
“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.



Hugo

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #427 on: January 01, 2018, 06:20:52 PM »
I think that the winds have started to arrive already in the West Shore as we were there this afternoon.   The sand is piling up  by the boating lake and we saw a guy who must have lived in one of the houses there and he was clearing the sand from by the drains.
Full marks to him for his effort but the sand will be coming back again!!!

Nemesis

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #428 on: January 01, 2018, 09:32:11 PM »
The sand by the lake has been piled up to the top of the wall for ages now, so where it is ending up I hate to think.
 Just as a matter of interest, a few weeks ago we had a small ceiling collapse and when my OH cleared the mess from the floor he shovelled up 2 sacks of sand..............and we are at least 1/2 a mile from there ! Wonder where that came from???? :o
Mad, Bad and Dangerous to know.

Hugo

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #429 on: January 02, 2018, 10:12:12 AM »
With westerly gusts of nearly 60 mph forecast for later today there will be more sand coming your way Nemesis.    You'll soon have more sand in your garden than the town has on the North Shore beach.      :o   


You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Ian

  • Administrator
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #430 on: January 02, 2018, 10:24:47 AM »
The latest probability model suggests we'll now escape the worst of the wind. Fingers crossed.
“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Hugo

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #431 on: January 02, 2018, 11:59:19 AM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The latest probability model suggests we'll now escape the worst of the wind. Fingers crossed.


Don't believe all you read in the DFM  Ian,  that's all fake news as one DT  keeps saying.      The BBC Wales latest forecast has gusts of over 40 mph in Llandudno for a continuous period of 25 hours.

That could mean one big sand dune in Nemesis garden on Wednesday

Nemesis

  • Ad Free Member
  • *
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #432 on: January 02, 2018, 02:26:52 PM »
So long as it stops short of filling the roof space in the loo again !
Mad, Bad and Dangerous to know.

SteveH

  • Newshound
  • *****
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #433 on: February 03, 2018, 12:24:01 PM »
I must have been a bit dozy this morning,  I misread this article.........

Yellow warning for snow and ice                   * warning for yellow snow and ice * ?  ?

Snow, ice and plunging temperatures are set to hit North Wales next week.

The Met Office has issued another yellow weather warning covering all of the region’s six counties from 9pm on Monday until 3pm on Tuesday.

SteveH

  • Newshound
  • *****
Re: The Great British Weather Debate
« Reply #434 on: February 13, 2018, 04:35:41 PM »
How long the freezing cold spell in North Wales is likely to last for       
Forecasters are predicting a much colder end to winter than usual.          :(

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login