Perhaps. You have to remember that all forecasting is probability-based, so there's a margin of error - I think it's around +/-5% at best - and it's often worse. But if you're spending a lot of time planning outside activities, then you will become more aware of forecasting inaccuracies. My wife's the gardener, and she's always moaning about the weather behaviour.
There's also the local topography, which can affect things quite a bit. Thus, Llandudno has an average annual rainfall of around 11", Llanrwst around 40" and Betws 60", so a pretty wide variation within just a few miles.
Another nuisance is the jet stream, which has been behaving oddly over the past couple of years. That has the power to produce very cold or very warm weather, often with little warning.
But there's no doubt that the planet's climate is changing, becoming warmer, and that will lead to increased rainfall over the Northern hemisphere and more extreme weather events. All this makes accurate forecasting more difficult.