Weather - or to be more precise - our weather in the UK is fascinating. And you may not realise it, but the degree of accuracy in forecasts has improved so that it now stands (even for Llandudno) at an all time high of around 80%. What drives the Meteorological office, however, is the income from the businesses which depend on accurate forecasting. Many businesses pay a small fortune to receive highly accurate forecasts and the rest of us benefit from the more generalised forecast on the TV.
Fester's point is interesting. The Beeb's national forecast attempts to compress a detailed image of probabilities, Euclidean vectors and fluid dynamics into a two minute natter; it can't possibly work other than for periods of high pressure. What's more, as Blongb notes, no concession to the Gulf Stream-influenced climate of Llandudno is ever made. And Llandudno enjoys not only the lowest rainfall in Wales but also one of the lowest in the UK with a mean temperature difference of around 3C between even Llanwrst and Llandudno.
I think what's important, however, is to make the point that forecasting is very, very tricky when compared with sticking your head out of the window. Weather patterns in the UK are notoriously unpredictable - far more so than most countries in the world. This unpredictability, combined with our significant tidal ranges make accurate forecasting pretty tricky, but our Met Office is recognised around the world as one of the best. The Americans, for example, use our Met office to forecast their Hurricanes, simply because we do it better.
I suspect that what needs to change is the emphasis. Glib phrases such as "It's going to be sunshine and showers for most of us" are usually influenced by the weather in the South: we often miss out on the showers completely and a forecast developed specifically for Llandudno would probably say "Cool breezes but lots of sunshine and very little chance of rain".
Around Snowdonia, and in much of Wales, the farming community do need to know the weather in some detail. More precisely, they need to know the temperatures as they have quite a significant impact on their decision making. But the Met office, via the BBC, have become their own worst enemies by making generalised statements about the weather several months in advance. Prediction of the weather even two days in advance is still very difficult, so when you read that the weather next week is likely be anything at all treat it with a pinch of salt.
